Vancouver Canucks at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2026-01-12 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 6 - 3 Vancouver Canucks

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MTL: 59.2%

VAN: 40.8%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.47

VAN: 2.90

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

VAN

Nikita Tolopilo - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

Stat	MTL	VAN
Season SV%	0.889	0.000
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.01	0.00

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Jakub Dobes	23	20	3	87.0%	3.37	6	0.37
VAN	Nikita Tolopilo	41	35	6	85.4%	4.72	5	-1.28

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • MTL at home vs VAN: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-12	MTL 6 - 3 VAN	MTL	MTL
2025-10-25	VAN 3 - 4 MTL	MTL	MTL
2025-03-11	VAN 2 - 4 MTL	MTL	VAN
2025-01-06	MTL 5 - 4 VAN	MTL	VAN
2024-03-21	VAN 4 - 1 MTL	VAN	VAN

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	18	1	1.38
1	VAN	9	1	0.74
2	MTL	21	3	2.12
2	VAN	10	3	1.11
3	MTL	18	1	1.22
3	VAN	15	2	1.52

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown