New Jersey Devils at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2026-01-12 • Grand Casino Arena

Minnesota Wild 2 - 5 New Jersey Devils

🚨 Upset Loss (66% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MIN: 66.2%

NJD: 33.8%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.02

NJD: 3.30

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MIN

Jesper Wallstedt - 11-2-3 | 0.928 SV% | 2.21 GAA

NJD

Jacob Markstrom - 9-9-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.32 GAA

Stat	MIN	NJD
Season SV%	0.928	0.884
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.21	3.32

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Jesper Wallstedt	29	24	5	82.8%	3.40	3	-1.60
NJD	Jacob Markstrom	22	20	2	90.9%	2.52	1	0.52

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • MIN at home vs NJD: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-12	MIN 2 - 5 NJD	NJD	MIN
2025-10-22	NJD 4 - 1 MIN	NJD	NJD
2025-03-31	NJD 3 - 2 MIN	NJD	NJD
2025-03-29	MIN 2 - 5 NJD	NJD	NJD
2023-11-02	MIN 3 - 5 NJD	NJD	MIN

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	16	0	0.98
1	NJD	16	2	1.10
2	MIN	14	0	0.60
2	NJD	13	0	0.63
3	MIN	12	1	0.95
3	NJD	13	1	1.68

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 66.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown