Toronto Maple Leafs at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2026-01-12 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (71% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 71.0%

TOR: 29.0%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.08

TOR: 2.84

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 50%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • COL at home vs TOR: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-25	TOR 1 - 4 COL	COL	COL
2026-01-12	COL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	COL
2025-03-19	TOR 2 - 1 COL	TOR	COL
2025-03-08	COL 7 - 4 TOR	COL	COL
2024-02-24	COL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	20	0	1.21
1	TOR	18	1	1.70
2	COL	8	0	0.37
2	TOR	12	0	0.63
3	COL	16	1	1.34
3	TOR	8	0	0.24
4	COL	2	0	0.28
4	TOR	4	0	0.48

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 71.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.1 - 2.8