Toronto Maple Leafs at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2026-01-12 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (79% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

COL: 78.5%

TOR: 21.5%

Expected Goals

COL: 4.19

TOR: 2.04

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

COL

Trent Miner - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

Stat	COL	TOR
Season SV%	0.000	0.914
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	0.00	2.74

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Trent Miner	32	28	4	87.5%	3.05	1	-0.95
TOR	Joseph Woll	34	31	3	91.2%	3.19	1	0.19

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • COL at home vs TOR: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-25	TOR 1 - 4 COL	COL	COL
2026-01-12	COL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	COL
2025-03-19	TOR 2 - 1 COL	TOR	COL
2025-03-08	COL 7 - 4 TOR	COL	COL
2024-02-24	COL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	20	0	1.21
1	TOR	18	1	1.70
2	COL	8	0	0.37
2	TOR	12	0	0.63
3	COL	16	1	1.34
3	TOR	8	0	0.24
4	COL	2	0	0.28
4	TOR	4	0	0.48

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 78.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 4.2 - 2.0