Toronto Maple Leafs at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions
2026-01-12 • Ball Arena
Colorado Avalanche 3 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs (OT)
🚨 Upset Loss (72% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
COL: 72.0%
TOR: 28.0%
Expected Goals
COL: 4.03
TOR: 2.07
Total Goals
Median: 5.4
Over 5.5: 44%
Over 6.5: 28%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
COL
Scott Wedgewood - 30-6-6 | 0.920 SV% | 2.07 GAA
TOR
Joseph Woll - 15-16-7 | 0.898 SV% | 3.34 GAA
| Stat | COL | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.919 | 0.914 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.951 | 0.863 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.914 |
| GAA | 2.13 | 2.74 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • COL at home vs TOR: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-25 | TOR 1 - 4 COL | COL | COL |
| 2026-01-12 | COL 3 - 4 TOR | TOR | COL |
| 2025-03-19 | TOR 2 - 1 COL | TOR | COL |
| 2025-03-08 | COL 7 - 4 TOR | COL | COL |
| 2024-02-24 | COL 3 - 4 TOR | TOR | TOR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11:15 | TOR | Goal |
| 1 | 16:12 | COL | Goal |
| 1 | 17:53 | COL | Goal |
| 2 | 02:12 | COL | Goal |
| 3 | 10:24 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 12:55 | COL | Goal |
| 4 | 03:59 | TOR | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 72.0%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Colorado Avalanche 3 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected: 4.0 - 2.1
Like this analysis? Get it daily.
Short, data-driven emails. Unsubscribe any time.