Vancouver Canucks at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2026-01-13 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 2 - 1 Vancouver Canucks

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

OTT: 73.2%

VAN: 26.8%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.43

VAN: 2.88

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 40%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

OTT

Leevi Meriläinen - 5-7-0 | 0.872 SV% | 3.46 GAA

VAN

Kevin Lankinen - 6-10-3 | 0.885 SV% | 3.41 GAA

Stat	OTT	VAN
Season SV%	0.872	0.885
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.46	3.41

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Leevi Meriläinen	20	19	1	95.0%	2.44	1	1.44
VAN	Kevin Lankinen	40	38	2	95.0%	3.96	2	1.96

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • OTT at home vs VAN: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-09	VAN 0 - 2 OTT	OTT	OTT
2026-01-13	OTT 2 - 1 VAN	OTT	OTT
2024-12-21	VAN 4 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT
2024-11-23	OTT 3 - 4 VAN	VAN	OTT
2024-01-02	VAN 6 - 3 OTT	VAN	VAN

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	18	0	1.15
1	VAN	10	0	0.69
2	OTT	24	1	1.70
2	VAN	11	0	0.87
3	OTT	13	1	1.11
3	VAN	15	1	0.87

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 73.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown