Montreal Canadiens at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2026-01-13 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 3 - 2 Montreal Canadiens (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WSH: 69.3%

MTL: 30.7%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.41

MTL: 2.71

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Stat	WSH	MTL
Season SV%	0.913	0.863
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.39	3.52

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	25	23	2	92.0%	2.31	1	0.31
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	42	39	3	92.9%	4.21	3	1.21

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 86% • WSH at home vs MTL: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	MTL 6 - 2 WSH	MTL	MTL
2026-01-13	WSH 3 - 2 MTL	WSH	WSH
2025-11-20	MTL 4 - 8 WSH	WSH	MTL
2025-04-30	WSH 4 - 1 MTL	WSH	WSH
2025-04-27	MTL 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	14	1	0.75
1	MTL	11	1	0.87
2	WSH	7	0	0.34
2	MTL	16	0	1.01
3	WSH	21	1	1.74
3	MTL	7	0	0.36
4	WSH	12	1	1.37
4	MTL	1	0	0.06

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 69.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 3 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.4 - 2.7