Montreal Canadiens at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2026-01-13 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 3 - 2 Montreal Canadiens (OT)

Win Probability

WSH: 67.2%

MTL: 32.8%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.64

MTL: 2.81

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 50%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • WSH at home vs MTL: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	MTL 6 - 2 WSH	MTL	MTL
2026-01-13	WSH 3 - 2 MTL	WSH	WSH
2025-11-20	MTL 4 - 8 WSH	WSH	MTL
2025-04-30	WSH 4 - 1 MTL	WSH	WSH
2025-04-27	MTL 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	14	1	0.75
1	MTL	11	1	0.87
2	WSH	7	0	0.34
2	MTL	16	0	1.01
3	WSH	21	1	1.74
3	MTL	7	0	0.36
4	WSH	12	1	1.37
4	MTL	1	0	0.06

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 67.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 3 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.6 - 2.8