Carolina Hurricanes at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2026-01-13 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 3 - 0 Carolina Hurricanes

🚨 Upset Win (63% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

STL: 37.5%

CAR: 62.5%

Expected Goals

STL: 3.32

CAR: 2.80

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

STL

Joel Hofer - 8-8-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.87 GAA

CAR

Brandon Bussi - 13-2-1 | 0.901 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Stat	STL	CAR
Season SV%	0.901	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.87	2.33

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Joel Hofer	33	33	0	100.0%	2.54	1	2.54
CAR	Brandon Bussi	31	28	3	90.3%	2.75	3	-0.25

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • STL at home vs CAR: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-12	CAR 1 - 3 STL	STL	CAR
2026-01-13	STL 3 - 0 CAR	STL	CAR
2024-11-17	CAR 4 - 1 STL	CAR	CAR
2024-10-19	STL 4 - 3 CAR	STL	STL
2024-04-12	STL 2 - 5 CAR	CAR	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	10	1	0.84
1	CAR	16	0	0.46
2	STL	15	2	1.31
2	CAR	16	0	0.97
3	STL	13	0	0.60
3	CAR	25	1	1.11

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown