New York Islanders at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2026-01-13 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 5 - 4 New York Islanders

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WPG: 52.4%

NYI: 47.6%

Expected Goals

WPG: 2.90

NYI: 3.19

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Stat	WPG	NYI
Season SV%	0.907	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.51	2.55

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	27	23	4	85.2%	2.98	2	-1.02
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	22	17	5	77.3%	4.05	4	-0.95

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • WPG at home vs NYI: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-13	WPG 5 - 4 NYI	WPG	WPG
2025-10-13	NYI 2 - 5 WPG	WPG	NYI
2025-03-04	NYI 3 - 2 WPG	NYI	WPG
2025-02-07	WPG 4 - 3 NYI	WPG	WPG
2024-03-23	NYI 6 - 3 WPG	NYI	NYI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	15	1	1.42
1	NYI	14	1	1.06
2	WPG	15	1	1.49
2	NYI	13	1	1.14
3	WPG	5	2	1.13
3	NYI	15	0	0.78

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 52.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown