Toronto Maple Leafs at Utah Hockey Club NHL Predictions

2026-01-13 • Delta Center

Utah Hockey Club 6 - 1 Toronto Maple Leafs

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

UTA: 72.3%

TOR: 27.7%

Expected Goals

UTA: 3.84

TOR: 2.68

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

TOR

Dennis Hildeby - 3-5-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.90 GAA

Stat	UTA	TOR
Season SV%	0.895	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.68	2.90

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	20	19	1	95.0%	2.17	2	1.17
TOR	Dennis Hildeby	41	35	6	85.4%	5.35	4	-0.65

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 75% • UTA at home vs TOR: 1-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-13	UTA 6 - 1 TOR	UTA	UTA
2025-11-05	TOR 5 - 3 UTA	TOR	TOR
2025-03-10	UTA 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	UTA
2024-11-24	TOR 3 - 2 UTA	TOR	TOR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	UTA	24	0	1.30
1	TOR	13	2	0.91
2	UTA	20	0	1.15
2	TOR	13	0	0.80
3	UTA	25	4	2.89
3	TOR	10	0	0.46

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 72.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown