Philadelphia Flyers at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2026-01-14 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 5 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BUF: 54.6%

PHI: 45.4%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.30

PHI: 3.25

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

Stat	BUF	PHI
Season SV%	0.903	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.46	2.40

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	22	20	2	90.9%	2.29	2	0.29
PHI	Dan Vladar	15	10	5	66.7%	3.69	2	-1.31

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • BUF at home vs PHI: 6-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-14	BUF 5 - 2 PHI	BUF	BUF
2025-12-18	BUF 5 - 3 PHI	BUF	BUF
2025-12-03	PHI 5 - 2 BUF	PHI	BUF
2025-04-17	BUF 5 - 4 PHI	BUF	BUF
2025-03-29	PHI 7 - 4 BUF	PHI	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	13	0	1.20
1	PHI	11	0	0.53
2	BUF	13	0	1.21
2	PHI	16	1	0.91
3	BUF	4	2	1.28
3	PHI	15	1	0.86

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown