Philadelphia Flyers at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2026-01-14 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 5 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

BUF: 55.2%

PHI: 44.8%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.52

PHI: 3.07

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • BUF at home vs PHI: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-14	BUF 5 - 2 PHI	BUF	BUF
2025-12-18	BUF 5 - 3 PHI	BUF	BUF
2025-12-03	PHI 5 - 2 BUF	PHI	PHI
2025-04-17	BUF 5 - 4 PHI	BUF	BUF
2025-03-29	PHI 7 - 4 BUF	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	13	0	1.23
1	PHI	11	0	0.53
2	BUF	13	0	1.21
2	PHI	16	1	0.91
3	BUF	4	2	1.28
3	PHI	15	1	0.86

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 5 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.5 - 3.1