Ottawa Senators at New York Rangers NHL Predictions
2026-01-14 • Madison Square Garden
New York Rangers 4 - 8 Ottawa Senators
🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NYR: 61.4%
OTT: 38.6%
Expected Goals
NYR: 3.26
OTT: 2.92
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 56%
Over 6.5: 44%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NYR
Igor Shesterkin - 17-12-4 | 0.913 SV% | 2.45 GAA
OTT
Linus Ullmark - 16-8-5 | 0.884 SV% | 2.86 GAA
| Stat | NYR | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.881 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.942 | 0.882 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.926 | — |
| GAA | 2.51 | 2.95 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • NYR at home vs OTT: 3-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-14 | NYR 4 - 8 OTT | OTT | NYR |
| 2025-12-04 | OTT 2 - 4 NYR | NYR | OTT |
| 2025-03-08 | OTT 4 - 3 NYR | OTT | OTT |
| 2025-01-21 | NYR 5 - 0 OTT | NYR | NYR |
| 2024-11-01 | NYR 2 - 1 OTT | NYR | NYR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19:54 | OTT | Goal |
| 1 | 15:01 | OTT | Goal |
| 1 | 04:53 | OTT | Goal |
| 1 | 02:18 | OTT | Goal |
| 2 | 18:55 | OTT | Goal |
| 2 | 12:23 | OTT | Goal |
| 2 | 05:57 | OTT | Goal |
| 3 | 19:11 | OTT | Goal |
| 3 | 15:58 | OTT | Goal |
| 3 | 10:44 | OTT | Goal |
| 3 | 08:20 | OTT | Goal |
| 3 | 05:26 | OTT | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 61.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 12.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
New York Rangers 4 - 8 Ottawa Senators
Expected: 3.3 - 2.9