Vegas Golden Knights at Los Angeles Kings NHL Predictions

2026-01-14 • Crypto.com Arena

Los Angeles Kings 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

LAK: 50.4%

VGK: 49.6%

Expected Goals

LAK: 3.19

VGK: 3.02

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

LAK

Darcy Kuemper - 10-7-6 | 0.913 SV% | 2.27 GAA

VGK

Akira Schmid - 11-4-4 | 0.895 SV% | 2.50 GAA

Stat	LAK	VGK
Season SV%	0.913	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.27	2.50

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
LAK	Darcy Kuemper	27	24	3	88.9%	2.03	0	-0.97
VGK	Akira Schmid	24	22	2	91.7%	2.62	1	0.62

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • LAK at home vs VGK: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-10	VGK 2 - 1 LAK	VGK	VGK
2026-02-25	LAK 4 - 6 VGK	VGK	LAK
2026-02-05	VGK 4 - 1 LAK	VGK	VGK
2026-01-14	LAK 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	LAK
2025-10-08	VGK 5 - 6 LAK	LAK	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	LAK	16	0	0.82
1	VGK	5	0	0.36
2	LAK	13	0	0.71
2	VGK	17	0	1.07
3	LAK	11	1	1.10
3	VGK	7	0	0.44
4	LAK	0	0	0.00
4	VGK	1	0	0.16

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Los Angeles Kings 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0