Montreal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2026-01-15 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 5 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 49.1%

MTL: 50.9%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.18

MTL: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 51%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • BUF at home vs MTL: 2-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-18	BUF 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-16	MTL 3 - 8 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-14	BUF 3 - 6 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-12	MTL 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-10	MTL 6 - 2 BUF	MTL	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	17	0	0.82
1	MTL	10	1	0.86
2	BUF	13	0	0.86
2	MTL	13	0	0.95
3	BUF	9	1	1.61
3	MTL	13	1	0.87

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 5 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0