Montreal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions
2026-01-15 • KeyBank Center
Buffalo Sabres 5 - 3 Montreal Canadiens
🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BUF: 46.6%
MTL: 53.4%
Expected Goals
BUF: 2.89
MTL: 3.00
Total Goals
Median: 5.3
Over 5.5: 45%
Over 6.5: 30%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
BUF
Alex Lyon - 20-10-4 | 0.906 SV% | 2.77 GAA
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 29-10-4 | 0.901 SV% | 2.78 GAA
| Stat | BUF | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.906 | 0.889 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.847 | 0.891 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.902 | 0.943 |
| GAA | 2.82 | 3.01 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • BUF at home vs MTL: 1-5
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | BUF 2 - 4 MTL | MTL | BUF |
| 2026-01-22 | MTL 2 - 4 BUF | BUF | MTL |
| 2026-01-15 | BUF 5 - 3 MTL | BUF | MTL |
| 2025-10-20 | MTL 4 - 2 BUF | MTL | MTL |
| 2025-03-03 | MTL 4 - 3 BUF | MTL | MTL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 03:11 | MTL | Goal |
| 1 | 04:05 | BUF | Goal |
| 1 | 10:30 | BUF | Goal |
| 1 | 14:20 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 03:05 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 08:55 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 05:12 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 18:20 | BUF | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 53.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 5.9
Score Breakdown
Buffalo Sabres 5 - 3 Montreal Canadiens
Expected: 2.9 - 3.0
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