Montreal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2026-01-15 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 5 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BUF: 47.0%

MTL: 53.0%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.20

MTL: 3.08

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BUF

Colten Ellis - 4-3-0 | 0.895 SV% | 3.25 GAA

MTL

Jacob Fowler - 3-1-2 | 0.904 SV% | 2.64 GAA

Stat	BUF	MTL
Season SV%	0.895	0.904
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.25	2.64

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Colten Ellis	23	20	3	87.0%	2.68	2	-0.32
MTL	Jacob Fowler	27	22	5	81.5%	3.30	1	-1.70

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 48% • BUF at home vs MTL: 4-10

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-13	MTL 4 - 3 BUF	MTL	MTL
2026-05-18	BUF 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-16	MTL 3 - 8 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-14	BUF 3 - 6 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-12	MTL 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	17	0	0.82
1	MTL	10	1	0.86
2	BUF	13	0	0.86
2	MTL	13	0	0.95
3	BUF	9	1	1.61
3	MTL	13	1	0.87

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown