Philadelphia Flyers at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2026-01-15 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 6 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

PIT: 64.4%

PHI: 35.6%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.30

PHI: 3.08

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • PIT at home vs PHI: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-29	PHI 1 - 0 PIT	PHI	PIT
2026-04-27	PIT 3 - 2 PHI	PIT	PHI
2026-04-25	PHI 2 - 4 PIT	PIT	PHI
2026-04-22	PHI 5 - 2 PIT	PHI	PHI
2026-04-20	PIT 0 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	20	3	1.78
1	PHI	13	0	1.11
2	PIT	15	2	1.65
2	PHI	27	0	1.55
3	PIT	10	0	0.91
3	PHI	16	1	1.24

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 6 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1