Philadelphia Flyers at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2026-01-15 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 6 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PIT: 66.1%

PHI: 33.9%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.30

PHI: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PIT

Stuart Skinner - 12-11-4 | 0.888 SV% | 2.91 GAA

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

Stat	PIT	PHI
Season SV%	0.888	0.868
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.91	3.09

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Stuart Skinner	34	31	3	91.2%	3.89	1	0.89
PHI	Samuel Ersson	30	24	6	80.0%	4.35	5	-1.65

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • PIT at home vs PHI: 9-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-09-30	PHI 0 - 7 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-04-29	PHI 1 - 0 PIT	PHI	PIT
2026-04-27	PIT 3 - 2 PHI	PIT	PIT
2026-04-25	PHI 2 - 4 PIT	PIT	PHI
2026-04-22	PHI 5 - 2 PIT	PHI	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	20	3	1.78
1	PHI	13	0	1.11
2	PIT	15	2	1.65
2	PHI	27	0	1.55
3	PIT	10	0	0.91
3	PHI	16	1	1.24

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 66.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown