San Jose Sharks at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2026-01-15 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 2 - 3 San Jose Sharks

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 62.1%

SJS: 37.9%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.42

SJS: 2.63

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 55%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • WSH at home vs SJS: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-15	WSH 2 - 3 SJS	SJS	WSH
2025-12-03	SJS 1 - 7 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-03-15	SJS 1 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH
2024-12-03	WSH 1 - 2 SJS	SJS	WSH
2023-11-27	SJS 2 - 1 WSH	SJS	SJS

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	10	0	0.39
1	SJS	13	0	0.77
2	WSH	6	0	0.39
2	SJS	18	2	1.29
3	WSH	22	1	1.34
3	SJS	7	1	0.79

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 2 - 3 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 3.4 - 2.6