San Jose Sharks at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2026-01-15 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 2 - 3 San Jose Sharks

🚨 Upset Loss (66% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WSH: 65.8%

SJS: 34.2%

Expected Goals

WSH: 2.84

SJS: 2.58

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

SJS

Alex Nedeljkovic - 5-7-2 | 0.895 SV% | 3.06 GAA

Stat	WSH	SJS
Season SV%	0.913	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.39	3.06

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	26	23	3	88.5%	2.85	3	-0.15
SJS	Alex Nedeljkovic	23	21	2	91.3%	2.13	1	0.13

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • WSH at home vs SJS: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-15	WSH 2 - 3 SJS	SJS	WSH
2025-12-03	SJS 1 - 7 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-03-15	SJS 1 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH
2024-12-03	WSH 1 - 2 SJS	SJS	WSH
2023-11-27	SJS 2 - 1 WSH	SJS	WSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	10	0	0.39
1	SJS	13	0	0.77
2	WSH	6	0	0.39
2	SJS	18	2	1.29
3	WSH	22	1	1.34
3	SJS	7	1	0.79

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 65.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.4

Score Breakdown