San Jose Sharks at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions
2026-01-15 • Capital One Arena
Washington Capitals 2 - 3 San Jose Sharks
🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
WSH: 51.3%
SJS: 48.7%
Expected Goals
WSH: 3.01
SJS: 3.18
Total Goals
Median: 5.9
Over 5.5: 58%
Over 6.5: 45%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
WSH
Logan Thompson - 31-21-6 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA
SJS
Yaroslav Askarov - 21-20-4 | 0.883 SV% | 3.63 GAA
| Stat | WSH | SJS |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.896 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.912 | 0.862 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.885 | 0.667 |
| GAA | 2.39 | 3.36 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • WSH at home vs SJS: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-15 | WSH 2 - 3 SJS | SJS | WSH |
| 2025-12-03 | SJS 1 - 7 WSH | WSH | WSH |
| 2025-03-15 | SJS 1 - 5 WSH | WSH | WSH |
| 2024-12-03 | WSH 1 - 2 SJS | SJS | WSH |
| 2023-11-27 | SJS 2 - 1 WSH | SJS | WSH |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 10:58 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 13:27 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 14:53 | SJS | Goal |
| 2 | 16:13 | SJS | Goal |
| 3 | 09:11 | SJS | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 51.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
Washington Capitals 2 - 3 San Jose Sharks
Expected: 3.0 - 3.2
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