Winnipeg Jets at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2026-01-15 • Grand Casino Arena

Minnesota Wild 2 - 6 Winnipeg Jets

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MIN: 52.6%

WPG: 47.4%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.30

WPG: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MIN

Jesper Wallstedt - 11-2-3 | 0.928 SV% | 2.21 GAA

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Stat	MIN	WPG
Season SV%	0.928	0.907
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.21	2.51

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Jesper Wallstedt	29	23	6	79.3%	2.52	2	-3.48
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	34	32	2	94.1%	2.53	0	0.53

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • MIN at home vs WPG: 3-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-13	WPG 5 - 2 MIN	WPG	WPG
2026-01-15	MIN 2 - 6 WPG	WPG	MIN
2025-12-27	WPG 3 - 4 MIN	MIN	MIN
2025-11-23	WPG 0 - 3 MIN	MIN	WPG
2025-10-28	MIN 3 - 4 WPG	WPG	MIN

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	13	0	0.41
1	WPG	14	1	1.37
2	MIN	17	0	1.23
2	WPG	14	1	0.58
3	MIN	17	0	0.89
3	WPG	13	0	0.58

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown