Dallas Stars at Utah Hockey Club NHL Predictions

2026-01-15 • Delta Center

Utah Hockey Club 2 - 1 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

UTA: 49.5%

DAL: 50.5%

Expected Goals

UTA: 3.10

DAL: 2.87

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Stat	UTA	DAL
Season SV%	0.895	0.907
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.68	2.57

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	27	26	1	96.3%	2.73	1	1.73
DAL	Jake Oettinger	27	25	2	92.6%	2.33	0	0.33

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • UTA at home vs DAL: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-16	DAL 3 - 6 UTA	UTA	UTA
2026-01-31	UTA 2 - 3 DAL	DAL	UTA
2026-01-15	UTA 2 - 1 DAL	UTA	DAL
2025-11-28	DAL 4 - 3 UTA	DAL	UTA
2025-04-12	DAL 3 - 5 UTA	UTA	UTA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	UTA	16	0	0.77
1	DAL	7	0	0.60
2	UTA	15	0	0.99
2	DAL	14	0	0.82
3	UTA	12	0	0.57
3	DAL	12	1	1.31

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown