New York Islanders at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2026-01-15 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 0 - 1 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

EDM: 62.1%

NYI: 37.9%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.47

NYI: 2.74

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

EDM

Connor Ingram - 2-2-0 | 0.883 SV% | 3.28 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Stat	EDM	NYI
Season SV%	0.883	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.28	2.55

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Connor Ingram	18	17	1	94.4%	3.90	4	2.90
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	35	35	0	100.0%	5.27	7	5.27

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • EDM at home vs NYI: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-15	EDM 0 - 1 NYI	NYI	EDM
2025-10-16	NYI 4 - 2 EDM	NYI	NYI
2025-03-14	NYI 1 - 2 EDM	EDM	NYI
2024-11-12	EDM 4 - 3 NYI	EDM	EDM
2023-12-19	NYI 3 - 1 EDM	NYI	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	21	4	1.99
1	NYI	16	0	1.13
2	EDM	19	3	1.55
2	NYI	6	0	0.38
3	EDM	19	0	1.74
3	NYI	9	4	2.40

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 62.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 1.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown