Toronto Maple Leafs at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2026-01-15 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 6 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs (OT)

Win Probability

VGK: 70.3%

TOR: 29.7%

Expected Goals

VGK: 4.38

TOR: 2.59

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 41%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • VGK at home vs TOR: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-23	TOR 3 - 6 VGK	VGK	TOR
2026-01-15	VGK 6 - 5 TOR	VGK	VGK
2025-03-05	VGK 5 - 2 TOR	VGK	VGK
2024-11-20	TOR 3 - 0 VGK	TOR	VGK
2024-02-27	TOR 2 - 6 VGK	VGK	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	16	0	1.06
1	TOR	19	0	0.93
2	VGK	13	1	0.61
2	TOR	10	0	0.66
3	VGK	17	1	1.48
3	TOR	9	0	0.63
4	VGK	2	0	0.25
4	TOR	2	0	0.13

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 70.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 7.0

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 6 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 4.4 - 2.6