Toronto Maple Leafs at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2026-01-15 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 6 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs (OT)

Win Probability

VGK: 70.5%

TOR: 29.5%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.98

TOR: 2.62

Total Goals

Median: 7.4

Over 5.5: 75%

Over 6.5: 62%

VGK

Akira Schmid - 16-10-6 | 0.893 SV% | 2.59 GAA

TOR

Joseph Woll - 15-16-7 | 0.898 SV% | 3.34 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • VGK at home vs TOR: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-23	TOR 3 - 6 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-01-15	VGK 6 - 5 TOR	VGK	VGK
2025-03-05	VGK 5 - 2 TOR	VGK	VGK
2024-11-20	TOR 3 - 0 VGK	TOR	TOR
2024-02-27	TOR 2 - 6 VGK	VGK	TOR

Period	Time	Team	Scorer
1	02:05	TOR	Goal
1	05:03	TOR	Goal
1	08:12	TOR	Goal
1	09:57	TOR	Goal
2	05:51	TOR	Goal
2	12:46	TOR	Goal
3	02:10	TOR	Goal
3	08:58	TOR	Goal
3	10:14	TOR	Goal
3	19:53	VGK	Goal
4	02:44	VGK	Goal

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 70.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 6 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 4.0 - 2.6