San Jose Sharks at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2026-01-16 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 4 - 2 San Jose Sharks

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DET: 67.5%

SJS: 32.5%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.60

SJS: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DET

John Gibson - 13-8-1 | 0.893 SV% | 2.97 GAA

SJS

Yaroslav Askarov - 15-10-1 | 0.896 SV% | 3.36 GAA

Stat	DET	SJS
Season SV%	0.893	0.896
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.97	3.36

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	John Gibson	22	20	2	90.9%	3.40	3	1.40
SJS	Yaroslav Askarov	25	21	4	84.0%	4.38	4	0.38

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • DET at home vs SJS: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-16	DET 4 - 2 SJS	DET	DET
2025-11-02	SJS 2 - 3 DET	DET	DET
2025-01-14	DET 3 - 6 SJS	SJS	DET
2024-11-18	SJS 5 - 4 DET	SJS	DET
2024-01-02	SJS 3 - 5 DET	DET	DET

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	21	1	1.27
1	SJS	11	2	2.04
2	DET	15	0	1.15
2	SJS	5	0	0.19
3	DET	13	3	1.96
3	SJS	12	1	1.17

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 67.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown