Tampa Bay Lightning at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2026-01-16 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 3 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning (SO)

🚨 Upset Win (64% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

STL: 35.8%

TBL: 64.2%

Expected Goals

STL: 2.91

TBL: 3.36

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

STL

Joel Hofer - 8-8-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.87 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Stat	STL	TBL
Season SV%	0.901	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.87	2.33

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Joel Hofer	39	37	2	94.9%	4.35	1	2.35
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	23	20	3	87.0%	2.94	2	-0.06

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • STL at home vs TBL: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-16	STL 3 - 2 TBL	STL	TBL
2025-12-22	TBL 4 - 1 STL	TBL	TBL
2024-12-19	TBL 3 - 1 STL	TBL	TBL
2024-11-05	STL 3 - 2 TBL	STL	TBL
2023-12-19	TBL 6 - 1 STL	TBL	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	11	0	0.65
1	TBL	21	0	1.33
2	STL	7	0	0.37
2	TBL	25	1	1.75
3	STL	10	1	0.65
3	TBL	15	0	0.83
4	STL	4	0	0.27
4	TBL	2	0	0.24
5	STL	2	1	1.01
5	TBL	3	0	0.20

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 64.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

St. Louis Blues 3 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 2.9 - 3.4