Tampa Bay Lightning at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2026-01-16 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 3 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning (SO)

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

Win Probability

STL: 48.8%

TBL: 51.2%

Expected Goals

STL: 3.02

TBL: 3.34

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • STL at home vs TBL: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-16	STL 3 - 2 TBL	STL	TBL
2025-12-22	TBL 4 - 1 STL	TBL	TBL
2024-12-19	TBL 3 - 1 STL	TBL	TBL
2024-11-05	STL 3 - 2 TBL	STL	TBL
2023-12-19	TBL 6 - 1 STL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	11	0	0.65
1	TBL	21	0	1.33
2	STL	7	0	0.37
2	TBL	25	1	1.75
3	STL	10	1	0.65
3	TBL	15	0	0.83
4	STL	4	0	0.27
4	TBL	2	0	0.24
5	STL	2	1	1.01
5	TBL	3	0	0.20

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

St. Louis Blues 3 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.0 - 3.3