Nashville Predators at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2026-01-16 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 7 Nashville Predators

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

COL: 61.8%

NSH: 38.2%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.48

NSH: 2.58

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

NSH

Juuse Saros - 15-13-3 | 0.897 SV% | 2.93 GAA

Stat	COL	NSH
Season SV%	0.924	0.897
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.07	2.93

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	30	23	7	76.7%	3.85	4	-3.15
NSH	Juuse Saros	43	40	3	93.0%	3.12	2	0.12

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 57% • COL at home vs NSH: 9-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-16	COL 3 - 7 NSH	NSH	COL
2025-12-13	COL 4 - 2 NSH	COL	COL
2025-12-09	NSH 4 - 3 COL	NSH	COL
2025-11-22	NSH 0 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2025-02-22	NSH 2 - 1 COL	NSH	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	21	1	1.24
1	NSH	16	1	0.86
2	COL	18	1	1.15
2	NSH	12	0	0.65
3	COL	14	0	0.72
3	NSH	11	3	2.34

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown