Minnesota Wild at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2026-01-17 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 5 Minnesota Wild (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

BUF: 55.9%

MIN: 44.1%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.35

MIN: 2.89

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • BUF at home vs MIN: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-17	BUF 4 - 5 MIN	MIN	BUF
2025-11-29	MIN 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-03-22	MIN 4 - 1 BUF	MIN	BUF
2024-11-27	BUF 0 - 1 MIN	MIN	BUF
2024-02-17	MIN 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	12	0	1.10
1	MIN	11	3	1.29
2	BUF	13	1	1.06
2	MIN	19	2	1.92
3	BUF	13	0	0.66
3	MIN	15	0	0.99
4	BUF	0	0	0.00
4	MIN	3	0	0.32

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 5 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9