Minnesota Wild at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions
2026-01-17 • KeyBank Center
Buffalo Sabres 4 - 5 Minnesota Wild (OT)
🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BUF: 55.8%
MIN: 44.2%
Expected Goals
BUF: 3.23
MIN: 2.80
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 55%
Over 6.5: 40%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
BUF
Alex Lyon - 20-10-4 | 0.906 SV% | 2.77 GAA
MIN
Filip Gustavsson - 28-15-6 | 0.903 SV% | 2.69 GAA
| Stat | BUF | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.906 | 0.912 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.847 | 0.836 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.895 |
| GAA | 2.82 | 2.47 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 17% • BUF at home vs MIN: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | BUF 4 - 5 MIN | MIN | BUF |
| 2025-11-29 | MIN 2 - 3 BUF | BUF | MIN |
| 2025-03-22 | MIN 4 - 1 BUF | MIN | BUF |
| 2024-11-27 | BUF 0 - 1 MIN | MIN | BUF |
| 2024-02-17 | MIN 2 - 3 BUF | BUF | MIN |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 09:19 | MIN | Goal |
| 1 | 10:05 | BUF | Goal |
| 1 | 19:52 | MIN | Goal |
| 2 | 01:08 | MIN | Goal |
| 2 | 10:07 | MIN | Goal |
| 2 | 11:34 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 16:07 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 17:04 | BUF | Goal |
| 4 | 01:46 | MIN | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 55.8%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
Buffalo Sabres 4 - 5 Minnesota Wild
Expected: 3.2 - 2.8
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