Minnesota Wild at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2026-01-17 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 5 Minnesota Wild (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BUF: 55.1%

MIN: 44.9%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.24

MIN: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

Stat	BUF	MIN
Season SV%	0.903	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.46	2.47

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	36	31	5	86.1%	4.86	6	-0.14
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	24	20	4	83.3%	2.82	1	-1.18

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • BUF at home vs MIN: 4-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-06	BUF 3 - 2 MIN	BUF	BUF
2026-01-17	BUF 4 - 5 MIN	MIN	BUF
2025-11-29	MIN 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	MIN
2025-03-22	MIN 4 - 1 BUF	MIN	BUF
2024-11-27	BUF 0 - 1 MIN	MIN	BUF

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	12	0	1.10
1	MIN	11	3	1.29
2	BUF	13	1	1.06
2	MIN	20	3	2.26
3	BUF	13	0	0.66
3	MIN	15	0	0.99
4	BUF	0	0	0.00
4	MIN	3	0	0.32

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 4 - 5 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0