New York Rangers at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2026-01-17 • Xfinity Mobile Arena

Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 6 New York Rangers

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PHI: 56.0%

NYR: 44.0%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.41

NYR: 4.41

Total Goals

Median: 5.4

Over 5.5: 49%

Over 6.5: 38%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PHI

Aleksei Kolosov - 5-9-1 | 0.867 SV% | 3.59 GAA

NYR

S. Martin

Stat	PHI	NYR
Season SV%	0.867	—
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.59	—

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Aleksei Kolosov	28	22	6	78.6%	3.66	1	-2.34
NYR	S. Martin	28	25	3	89.3%	2.89	1	-0.11

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • PHI at home vs NYR: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-09	PHI 2 - 6 NYR	NYR	PHI
2026-02-26	NYR 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	NYR
2026-01-17	PHI 3 - 6 NYR	NYR	PHI
2025-12-20	NYR 5 - 4 PHI	NYR	NYR
2025-04-09	NYR 5 - 8 PHI	PHI	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	10	0	0.41
1	NYR	15	1	1.29
2	PHI	9	0	0.63
2	NYR	21	0	1.99
3	PHI	24	1	1.85
3	NYR	12	0	0.38

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 7.8

Score Breakdown