New York Rangers at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions
2026-01-17 • Xfinity Mobile Arena
Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 6 New York Rangers
🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PHI: 60.4%
NYR: 39.6%
Expected Goals
PHI: 3.74
NYR: 3.14
Total Goals
Median: 6.6
Over 5.5: 66%
Over 6.5: 51%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PHI
Dan Vladar - 17-9-6 | 0.905 SV% | 2.46 GAA
NYR
Igor Shesterkin - 17-12-4 | 0.913 SV% | 2.45 GAA
| Stat | PHI | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.918 | 0.942 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.875 |
| GAA | 2.40 | 2.51 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • PHI at home vs NYR: 1-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-26 | NYR | ||
| 2026-01-17 | PHI 3 - 6 NYR | NYR | PHI |
| 2025-12-20 | NYR 5 - 4 PHI | NYR | NYR |
| 2025-04-09 | NYR 5 - 8 PHI | PHI | NYR |
| 2025-01-23 | NYR 6 - 1 PHI | NYR | NYR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 08:25 | NYR | Goal |
| 1 | 07:26 | NYR | Goal |
| 1 | 07:05 | PHI | Goal |
| 1 | 06:22 | PHI | Goal |
| 2 | 16:48 | NYR | Goal |
| 2 | 14:31 | NYR | Goal |
| 2 | 08:25 | NYR | Goal |
| 2 | 05:38 | NYR | Goal |
| 3 | 08:01 | NYR | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 60.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 6.9
Score Breakdown
Philadelphia Flyers 3 - 6 New York Rangers
Expected: 3.7 - 3.1