New York Islanders at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2026-01-17 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 4 - 2 New York Islanders

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CGY: 54.1%

NYI: 45.9%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.17

NYI: 2.83

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

NYI

David Rittich - 10-5-2 | 0.909 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Stat	CGY	NYI
Season SV%	0.901	0.909
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.82	2.46

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	30	28	2	93.3%	3.84	2	1.84
NYI	David Rittich	19	15	4	78.9%	3.03	3	-0.97

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CGY at home vs NYI: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	NYI 3 - 2 CGY	NYI	NYI
2026-01-17	CGY 4 - 2 NYI	CGY	CGY
2025-03-22	NYI 3 - 4 CGY	CGY	NYI
2024-11-19	CGY 2 - 1 NYI	CGY	CGY
2024-02-10	NYI 2 - 5 CGY	CGY	CGY

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	9	0	0.46
1	NYI	22	1	1.73
2	CGY	17	0	0.89
2	NYI	17	0	1.07
3	CGY	11	3	1.68
3	NYI	20	1	1.05

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown