Columbus Blue Jackets at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2026-01-17 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 4 Columbus Blue Jackets (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PIT: 55.1%

CBJ: 44.9%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.35

CBJ: 3.57

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 54%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PIT

Arturs Silovs - 7-5-6 | 0.886 SV% | 3.20 GAA

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

Stat	PIT	CBJ
Season SV%	0.886	0.877
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.20	4.04

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Arturs Silovs	30	25	5	83.3%	4.92	4	-0.08
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	36	32	4	88.9%	5.78	4	1.78

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • PIT at home vs CBJ: 7-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-09	CBJ 3 - 2 PIT	CBJ	CBJ
2026-01-17	PIT 3 - 4 CBJ	CBJ	PIT
2026-01-04	CBJ 4 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-11-28	CBJ 3 - 4 PIT	PIT	CBJ
2025-10-25	PIT 4 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	CBJ

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	19	1	1.32
1	CBJ	7	1	0.53
2	PIT	10	0	0.91
2	CBJ	20	0	1.35
3	PIT	18	1	1.42
3	CBJ	9	1	0.68
4	PIT	8	1	1.16
4	CBJ	3	0	0.34
5	PIT	3	1	0.98
5	CBJ	4	2	2.01

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 4 Columbus Blue Jackets

Expected: 3.3 - 3.6