Toronto Maple Leafs at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2026-01-17 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 3 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WPG: 59.3%

TOR: 40.7%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.38

TOR: 3.06

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

TOR

Dennis Hildeby - 3-5-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.90 GAA

Stat	WPG	TOR
Season SV%	0.907	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.51	2.90

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	37	33	4	89.2%	3.07	2	-0.93
TOR	Dennis Hildeby	30	27	3	90.0%	3.46	2	0.46

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • WPG at home vs TOR: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-17	WPG 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	WPG
2026-01-01	TOR 6 - 5 WPG	TOR	TOR
2024-12-23	TOR 2 - 5 WPG	WPG	TOR
2024-10-28	WPG 4 - 6 TOR	TOR	WPG
2024-01-27	WPG 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	WPG

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	16	0	0.89
1	TOR	9	0	0.24
2	WPG	19	2	1.56
2	TOR	14	1	1.20
3	WPG	16	0	0.98
3	TOR	18	1	1.16
4	WPG	1	0	0.03
4	TOR	5	0	0.48

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 3 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.4 - 3.1