Toronto Maple Leafs at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions
2026-01-17 • Canada Life Centre
Winnipeg Jets 3 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs (OT)
🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
WPG: 59.6%
TOR: 40.4%
Expected Goals
WPG: 3.07
TOR: 3.05
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 56%
Over 6.5: 42%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
WPG
Connor Hellebuyck - 13-16-7 | 0.900 SV% | 2.79 GAA
TOR
Joseph Woll - 13-7-4 | 0.908 SV% | 2.92 GAA
| Stat | WPG | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.907 | 0.914 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.879 | 0.910 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.892 | 0.765 |
| GAA | 2.51 | 2.74 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • WPG at home vs TOR: 0-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | WPG 3 - 4 TOR | TOR | WPG |
| 2026-01-01 | TOR 6 - 5 WPG | TOR | TOR |
| 2024-12-23 | TOR 2 - 5 WPG | WPG | TOR |
| 2024-10-28 | WPG 4 - 6 TOR | TOR | WPG |
| 2024-01-27 | WPG 2 - 4 TOR | TOR | TOR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 02:23 | WPG | Goal |
| 2 | 08:59 | WPG | Goal |
| 2 | 09:22 | WPG | Goal |
| 3 | 02:28 | WPG | Goal |
| 3 | 05:58 | WPG | Goal |
| 3 | 15:33 | WPG | Goal |
| 4 | 03:08 | TOR | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 59.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Winnipeg Jets 3 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected: 3.1 - 3.0