Nashville Predators at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2026-01-17 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 7 - 2 Nashville Predators

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VGK: 66.5%

NSH: 33.5%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.68

NSH: 2.73

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VGK

Akira Schmid - 11-4-4 | 0.895 SV% | 2.50 GAA

NSH

Justus Annunen - 3-5-1 | 0.875 SV% | 3.29 GAA

Stat	VGK	NSH
Season SV%	0.895	0.875
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.50	3.29

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Akira Schmid	29	27	2	93.1%	2.59	1	0.59
NSH	Justus Annunen	36	29	7	80.6%	3.58	0	-3.42

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • VGK at home vs NSH: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-13	NSH 2 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-21	NSH 4 - 1 VGK	NSH	VGK
2026-01-17	VGK 7 - 2 NSH	VGK	VGK
2025-12-31	VGK 2 - 4 NSH	NSH	VGK
2025-04-12	VGK 5 - 3 NSH	VGK	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	18	0	1.40
1	NSH	13	1	0.77
2	VGK	15	0	0.82
2	NSH	18	0	1.11
3	VGK	13	0	1.36
3	NSH	13	0	0.71

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 66.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown