Tampa Bay Lightning at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2026-01-18 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 1 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DAL: 53.2%

TBL: 46.8%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.21

TBL: 3.20

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Stat	DAL	TBL
Season SV%	0.907	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.57	2.33

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	26	22	4	84.6%	3.99	3	-0.01
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	20	19	1	95.0%	2.97	4	1.97

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • DAL at home vs TBL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-18	DAL 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	DAL
2025-10-30	TBL 2 - 1 DAL	TBL	TBL
2025-03-20	DAL 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2024-11-23	TBL 2 - 4 DAL	DAL	TBL
2023-12-04	TBL 4 - 0 DAL	TBL	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	11	2	1.55
1	TBL	8	0	0.53
2	DAL	11	2	1.28
2	TBL	20	1	1.83
3	DAL	4	0	0.14
3	TBL	13	2	1.64

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown