Tampa Bay Lightning at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions
2026-01-18 • American Airlines Center
Dallas Stars 1 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
DAL: 47.3%
TBL: 52.7%
Expected Goals
DAL: 3.11
TBL: 3.14
Total Goals
Median: 6.1
Over 5.5: 58%
Over 6.5: 43%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
DAL
Jake Oettinger - 35-12-6 | 0.899 SV% | 2.59 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
| Stat | DAL | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.907 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.916 | 0.919 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.914 | 0.951 |
| GAA | 2.57 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • DAL at home vs TBL: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-18 | DAL 1 - 4 TBL | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-10-30 | TBL 2 - 1 DAL | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-03-20 | DAL 2 - 3 TBL | TBL | TBL |
| 2024-11-23 | TBL 2 - 4 DAL | DAL | TBL |
| 2023-12-04 | TBL 4 - 0 DAL | TBL | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 04:00 | DAL | Goal |
| 1 | 08:04 | DAL | Goal |
| 2 | 11:04 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 18:50 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 17:59 | TBL | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 52.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
Dallas Stars 1 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 3.1 - 3.1
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