Tampa Bay Lightning at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions
2026-01-18 • American Airlines Center
Dallas Stars 1 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning
🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
DAL: 60.5%
TBL: 39.5%
Expected Goals
DAL: 2.93
TBL: 2.20
Total Goals
Median: 5.0
Over 5.5: 42%
Over 6.5: 29%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
DAL
Jake Oettinger - 23-10-4 | 0.897 SV% | 2.73 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
| Stat | DAL | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.907 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.860 | 0.921 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.914 | 0.951 |
| GAA | 2.57 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • DAL at home vs TBL: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-18 | DAL 1 - 4 TBL | TBL | DAL |
| 2025-10-30 | TBL 2 - 1 DAL | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-03-20 | DAL 2 - 3 TBL | TBL | DAL |
| 2024-11-23 | TBL 2 - 4 DAL | DAL | TBL |
| 2023-12-04 | TBL 4 - 0 DAL | TBL | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 04:00 | DAL | Goal |
| 1 | 08:04 | DAL | Goal |
| 2 | 11:04 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 18:50 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 17:59 | TBL | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 60.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 5.1
Score Breakdown
Dallas Stars 1 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 2.9 - 2.2