Tampa Bay Lightning at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2026-01-18 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 1 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

DAL: 42.0%

TBL: 58.0%

Expected Goals

DAL: 2.85

TBL: 3.30

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • DAL at home vs TBL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-18	DAL 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-30	TBL 2 - 1 DAL	TBL	TBL
2025-03-20	DAL 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	TBL
2024-11-23	TBL 2 - 4 DAL	DAL	TBL
2023-12-04	TBL 4 - 0 DAL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	11	2	1.55
1	TBL	8	0	0.53
2	DAL	11	2	1.28
2	TBL	20	1	1.83
3	DAL	4	0	0.14
3	TBL	13	2	1.64

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 1 - 4 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 2.9 - 3.3