Ottawa Senators at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2026-01-18 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 4 - 3 Ottawa Senators (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (60% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DET: 40.2%

OTT: 59.8%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.47

OTT: 2.51

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DET

John Gibson - 13-8-1 | 0.893 SV% | 2.97 GAA

OTT

J. Reimer

Stat	DET	OTT
Season SV%	0.893	—
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.97	—

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	John Gibson	22	19	3	86.4%	2.86	2	-0.14
OTT	J. Reimer	34	30	4	88.2%	3.96	3	-0.04

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • DET at home vs OTT: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	DET 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2026-02-26	OTT 1 - 2 DET	DET	OTT
2026-01-18	DET 4 - 3 OTT	DET	OTT
2026-01-05	OTT 3 - 5 DET	DET	OTT
2025-03-27	DET 3 - 4 OTT	OTT	DET

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	18	1	0.94
1	OTT	18	1	1.40
2	DET	24	2	2.09
2	OTT	11	1	0.89
3	DET	13	0	0.84
3	OTT	8	0	0.47
4	DET	1	0	0.10
4	OTT	1	0	0.11

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 4 - 3 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.5 - 2.5