Ottawa Senators at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions
2026-01-18 • Little Caesars Arena
Detroit Red Wings 4 - 3 Ottawa Senators (OT)
🚨 Upset Win (63% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
DET: 37.4%
OTT: 62.6%
Expected Goals
DET: 3.07
OTT: 2.78
Total Goals
Median: 5.2
Over 5.5: 48%
Over 6.5: 37%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
DET
John Gibson - 29-22-4 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA
OTT
Linus Ullmark - 28-12-8 | 0.891 SV% | 2.73 GAA
| Stat | DET | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.893 | 0.881 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.862 | 0.921 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.907 | 0.927 |
| GAA | 2.97 | 2.95 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • DET at home vs OTT: 2-4
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-24 | DET 2 - 3 OTT | OTT | OTT |
| 2026-02-26 | OTT 1 - 2 DET | DET | OTT |
| 2026-01-18 | DET 4 - 3 OTT | DET | OTT |
| 2026-01-05 | OTT 3 - 5 DET | DET | OTT |
| 2025-03-27 | DET 3 - 4 OTT | OTT | DET |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 04:26 | OTT | Goal |
| 1 | 05:05 | OTT | Goal |
| 1 | 07:16 | OTT | Goal |
| 2 | 06:06 | DET | Goal |
| 2 | 16:53 | DET | Goal |
| 2 | 19:05 | DET | Goal |
| 4 | 00:36 | DET | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 62.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 5.8
Score Breakdown
Detroit Red Wings 4 - 3 Ottawa Senators
Expected: 3.1 - 2.8
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