Buffalo Sabres at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2026-01-19 • Lenovo Center

Carolina Hurricanes 2 - 1 Buffalo Sabres

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CAR: 69.2%

BUF: 30.8%

Expected Goals

CAR: 2.71

BUF: 2.27

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 51%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CAR

Brandon Bussi - 13-2-1 | 0.901 SV% | 2.33 GAA

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Stat	CAR	BUF
Season SV%	0.901	0.903
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.33	2.46

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Brandon Bussi	18	17	1	94.4%	2.62	1	1.62
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	29	27	2	93.1%	3.57	3	1.57

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • CAR at home vs BUF: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-19	CAR 2 - 1 BUF	CAR	CAR
2025-11-23	BUF 4 - 1 CAR	BUF	CAR
2025-11-08	CAR 6 - 3 BUF	CAR	CAR
2025-04-08	BUF 3 - 0 CAR	BUF	CAR
2025-02-27	CAR 5 - 2 BUF	CAR	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	17	1	1.67
1	BUF	8	0	0.65
2	CAR	11	1	0.73
2	BUF	11	1	1.07
3	CAR	12	1	1.17
3	BUF	11	0	0.90

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 69.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.0

Score Breakdown