Washington Capitals at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2026-01-19 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 5 - 2 Washington Capitals

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

COL: 77.9%

WSH: 22.1%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.97

WSH: 2.14

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

COL

Scott Wedgewood - 17-1-4 | 0.919 SV% | 2.13 GAA

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

Stat	COL	WSH
Season SV%	0.919	0.887
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.13	3.07

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Scott Wedgewood	24	22	2	91.7%	2.73	0	0.73
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	44	39	5	88.6%	4.81	3	-0.19

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • COL at home vs WSH: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	WSH 2 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2026-01-19	COL 5 - 2 WSH	COL	COL
2024-11-21	WSH 1 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2024-11-15	COL 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	COL
2024-02-13	WSH 3 - 6 COL	COL	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	18	0	0.89
1	WSH	21	0	1.19
2	COL	29	1	1.94
2	WSH	12	0	0.97
3	COL	23	2	1.98
3	WSH	11	0	0.57

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 77.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown