San Jose Sharks at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2026-01-19 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 1 - 4 San Jose Sharks

🚨 Upset Loss (65% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

FLA: 65.1%

SJS: 34.9%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.30

SJS: 2.38

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 51%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

SJS

Alex Nedeljkovic - 5-7-2 | 0.895 SV% | 3.06 GAA

Stat	FLA	SJS
Season SV%	0.888	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.80	3.06

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	28	24	4	85.7%	4.87	8	0.87
SJS	Alex Nedeljkovic	36	35	1	97.2%	2.78	1	1.78

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • FLA at home vs SJS: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-19	FLA 1 - 4 SJS	SJS	FLA
2025-11-08	SJS 3 - 1 FLA	SJS	FLA
2025-01-25	SJS 2 - 7 FLA	FLA	FLA
2024-12-07	FLA 3 - 1 SJS	FLA	FLA
2023-11-14	SJS 3 - 5 FLA	FLA	FLA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	11	1	0.83
1	SJS	12	1	0.65
2	FLA	13	0	0.69
2	SJS	15	4	2.00
3	FLA	20	0	1.26
3	SJS	12	3	2.21

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 65.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown