Minnesota Wild at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions
2026-01-19 • Scotiabank Arena
Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 6 Minnesota Wild
🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TOR: 59.7%
MIN: 40.3%
Expected Goals
TOR: 3.21
MIN: 3.31
Total Goals
Median: 6.4
Over 5.5: 63%
Over 6.5: 50%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TOR
Joseph Woll - 13-7-4 | 0.908 SV% | 2.92 GAA
MIN
Filip Gustavsson - 20-9-6 | 0.906 SV% | 2.64 GAA
| Stat | TOR | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.914 | 0.912 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.910 | 0.895 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.828 | 0.900 |
| GAA | 2.74 | 2.47 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • TOR at home vs MIN: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-19 | TOR 3 - 6 MIN | MIN | TOR |
| 2025-01-29 | TOR 1 - 3 MIN | MIN | TOR |
| 2024-11-03 | MIN 2 - 1 TOR | MIN | MIN |
| 2023-11-19 | MIN 3 - 4 TOR | TOR | MIN |
| 2023-10-14 | TOR 7 - 4 MIN | TOR | TOR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18:24 | MIN | Goal |
| 1 | 10:29 | MIN | Goal |
| 1 | 04:45 | MIN | Goal |
| 2 | 19:14 | MIN | Goal |
| 2 | 08:24 | MIN | Goal |
| 2 | 06:53 | MIN | Goal |
| 3 | 17:22 | MIN | Goal |
| 3 | 15:02 | MIN | Goal |
| 3 | 06:27 | MIN | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 59.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 6.5
Score Breakdown
Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 6 Minnesota Wild
Expected: 3.2 - 3.3