Minnesota Wild at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2026-01-19 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 6 Minnesota Wild

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TOR: 52.3%

MIN: 47.7%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.26

MIN: 2.94

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

Stat	TOR	MIN
Season SV%	0.914	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.74	2.47

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Joseph Woll	39	33	6	84.6%	5.20	6	-0.80
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	30	27	3	90.0%	3.06	2	0.06

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TOR at home vs MIN: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-15	MIN 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	MIN
2026-01-19	TOR 3 - 6 MIN	MIN	TOR
2025-01-29	TOR 1 - 3 MIN	MIN	TOR
2024-11-03	MIN 2 - 1 TOR	MIN	MIN
2023-11-19	MIN 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	13	0	0.86
1	MIN	15	3	1.26
2	TOR	12	0	0.74
2	MIN	25	1	1.77
3	TOR	16	2	1.45
3	MIN	16	2	2.17

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown