Minnesota Wild at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2026-01-19 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 6 Minnesota Wild

Win Probability

TOR: 48.4%

MIN: 51.6%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.91

MIN: 3.42

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TOR at home vs MIN: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-15	MIN 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	MIN
2026-01-19	TOR 3 - 6 MIN	MIN	MIN
2025-01-29	TOR 1 - 3 MIN	MIN	TOR
2024-11-03	MIN 2 - 1 TOR	MIN	MIN
2023-11-19	MIN 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	13	0	0.86
1	MIN	15	3	1.26
2	TOR	12	0	0.74
2	MIN	25	1	1.77
3	TOR	16	2	1.45
3	MIN	16	2	2.17

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 6 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 2.9 - 3.4