Philadelphia Flyers at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions
2026-01-19 • T-Mobile Arena
Vegas Golden Knights 1 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers
🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
VGK: 56.8%
PHI: 43.2%
Expected Goals
VGK: 3.59
PHI: 2.97
Total Goals
Median: 6.3
Over 5.5: 64%
Over 6.5: 49%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-6-6 | 0.895 SV% | 2.53 GAA
PHI
Dan Vladar - 17-9-6 | 0.905 SV% | 2.46 GAA
| Stat | VGK | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.895 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.891 | 0.918 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.895 | 0.864 |
| GAA | 2.50 | 2.40 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • VGK at home vs PHI: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-19 | VGK 1 - 2 PHI | PHI | VGK |
| 2025-12-11 | PHI 2 - 3 VGK | VGK | PHI |
| 2025-01-02 | VGK 5 - 2 PHI | VGK | VGK |
| 2024-11-25 | PHI 4 - 5 VGK | VGK | PHI |
| 2023-11-18 | PHI 4 - 3 VGK | PHI | PHI |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 03:46 | PHI | Goal |
| 2 | 19:28 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 07:22 | PHI | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 56.8%
Total Goals
Actual: 3.0
Expected: 6.6
Score Breakdown
Vegas Golden Knights 1 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers
Expected: 3.6 - 3.0