Philadelphia Flyers at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2026-01-19 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 1 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 57.4%

PHI: 42.6%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.36

PHI: 2.72

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • VGK at home vs PHI: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-19	VGK 1 - 2 PHI	PHI	VGK
2025-12-11	PHI 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-01-02	VGK 5 - 2 PHI	VGK	VGK
2024-11-25	PHI 4 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2023-11-18	PHI 4 - 3 VGK	PHI	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	15	1	1.05
1	PHI	7	0	0.43
2	VGK	9	2	1.07
2	PHI	16	1	1.00
3	VGK	13	1	1.18
3	PHI	13	0	0.86

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 1 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.4 - 2.7