Philadelphia Flyers at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2026-01-19 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 1 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VGK: 58.1%

PHI: 41.9%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.09

PHI: 2.96

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

Stat	VGK	PHI
Season SV%	0.888	0.868
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.73	3.09

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Adin Hill	17	15	2	88.2%	2.29	1	0.29
PHI	Samuel Ersson	25	24	1	96.0%	3.29	4	2.29

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • VGK at home vs PHI: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-19	VGK 1 - 2 PHI	PHI	VGK
2025-12-11	PHI 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-01-02	VGK 5 - 2 PHI	VGK	VGK
2024-11-25	PHI 4 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2023-11-18	PHI 4 - 3 VGK	PHI	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	15	1	1.05
1	PHI	7	0	0.43
2	VGK	9	2	1.07
2	PHI	16	1	1.00
3	VGK	13	1	1.18
3	PHI	13	0	0.86

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown