New York Islanders at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2026-01-19 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 3 - 4 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VAN: 50.8%

NYI: 49.2%

Expected Goals

VAN: 3.06

NYI: 3.27

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VAN

Kevin Lankinen - 6-10-3 | 0.885 SV% | 3.41 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Stat	VAN	NYI
Season SV%	0.885	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.41	2.55

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Kevin Lankinen	33	29	4	87.9%	3.73	2	-0.27
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	32	29	3	90.6%	3.86	3	0.86

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 17% • VAN at home vs NYI: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-19	VAN 3 - 4 NYI	NYI	VAN
2025-12-19	NYI 1 - 4 VAN	VAN	NYI
2025-03-26	NYI 2 - 5 VAN	VAN	NYI
2024-11-14	VAN 2 - 5 NYI	NYI	VAN
2024-01-09	NYI 2 - 5 VAN	VAN	NYI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	18	1	1.66
1	NYI	17	0	0.96
2	VAN	15	2	1.49
2	NYI	19	1	1.84
3	VAN	11	0	0.71
3	NYI	12	1	0.94

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown