Minnesota Wild at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2026-01-20 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 4 - 3 Minnesota Wild

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MTL: 60.6%

MIN: 39.4%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.37

MIN: 2.85

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

MIN

Jesper Wallstedt - 11-2-3 | 0.928 SV% | 2.21 GAA

Stat	MTL	MIN
Season SV%	0.889	0.928
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.01	2.21

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Jakub Dobes	20	17	3	85.0%	2.45	3	-0.55
MIN	Jesper Wallstedt	33	29	4	87.9%	2.65	2	-1.35

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • MTL at home vs MIN: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-02	MIN 4 - 3 MTL	MIN	MIN
2026-01-20	MTL 4 - 3 MIN	MTL	MTL
2025-01-30	MTL 0 - 4 MIN	MIN	MTL
2024-11-14	MIN 3 - 0 MTL	MIN	MIN
2023-12-21	MIN 4 - 3 MTL	MIN	MIN

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	24	2	1.77
1	MIN	8	1	0.81
2	MTL	10	0	0.40
2	MIN	14	0	0.48
3	MTL	16	0	0.48
3	MIN	12	2	1.17

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown