San Jose Sharks at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2026-01-20 • Benchmark International Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 San Jose Sharks
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 76.1%
SJS: 23.9%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.53
SJS: 2.29
Total Goals
Median: 4.6
Over 5.5: 40%
Over 6.5: 24%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
SJS
Yaroslav Askarov - 21-20-4 | 0.883 SV% | 3.63 GAA
| Stat | TBL | SJS |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.896 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.919 | 0.862 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.911 | 0.793 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 3.36 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • TBL at home vs SJS: 3-0
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-20 | TBL 4 - 1 SJS | TBL | TBL |
| 2026-01-03 | SJS 3 - 7 TBL | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-01-02 | SJS 2 - 1 TBL | SJS | TBL |
| 2024-12-05 | TBL 8 - 1 SJS | TBL | TBL |
| 2024-03-21 | SJS 1 - 4 TBL | TBL | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14:37 | SJS | Goal |
| 1 | 15:10 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 01:49 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 03:17 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 17:41 | TBL | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 76.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 5.8
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 San Jose Sharks
Expected: 3.5 - 2.3
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