San Jose Sharks at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-01-20 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 San Jose Sharks

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TBL: 79.9%

SJS: 20.1%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.61

SJS: 2.08

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

SJS

Yaroslav Askarov - 15-10-1 | 0.896 SV% | 3.36 GAA

Stat	TBL	SJS
Season SV%	0.913	0.896
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.33	3.36

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	23	22	1	95.7%	1.19	1	0.19
SJS	Yaroslav Askarov	20	16	4	80.0%	3.42	2	-0.58

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • TBL at home vs SJS: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-20	TBL 4 - 1 SJS	TBL	TBL
2026-01-03	SJS 3 - 7 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-01-02	SJS 2 - 1 TBL	SJS	TBL
2024-12-05	TBL 8 - 1 SJS	TBL	TBL
2024-03-21	SJS 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	12	0	0.66
1	SJS	10	1	0.47
2	TBL	16	0	0.80
2	SJS	7	0	0.43
3	TBL	16	2	1.96
3	SJS	10	0	0.28

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 79.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown