San Jose Sharks at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2026-01-20 • Benchmark International Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 San Jose Sharks
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 69.9%
SJS: 30.1%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.32
SJS: 3.08
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 60%
Over 6.5: 46%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
SJS
Yaroslav Askarov - 17-15-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.53 GAA
| Stat | TBL | SJS |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.896 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.921 | 0.874 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.911 | 0.793 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 3.36 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TBL at home vs SJS: 3-0
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-20 | TBL 4 - 1 SJS | TBL | TBL |
| 2026-01-03 | SJS 3 - 7 TBL | TBL | SJS |
| 2025-01-02 | SJS 2 - 1 TBL | SJS | SJS |
| 2024-12-05 | TBL 8 - 1 SJS | TBL | TBL |
| 2024-03-21 | SJS 1 - 4 TBL | TBL | SJS |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14:37 | SJS | Goal |
| 1 | 15:10 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 01:49 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 03:17 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 17:41 | TBL | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 69.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.4
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 San Jose Sharks
Expected: 3.3 - 3.1