San Jose Sharks at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-01-20 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 San Jose Sharks

Win Probability

TBL: 81.2%

SJS: 18.8%

Expected Goals

TBL: 4.07

SJS: 1.82

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 51%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • TBL at home vs SJS: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-20	TBL 4 - 1 SJS	TBL	TBL
2026-01-03	SJS 3 - 7 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-01-02	SJS 2 - 1 TBL	SJS	TBL
2024-12-05	TBL 8 - 1 SJS	TBL	TBL
2024-03-21	SJS 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	12	0	0.66
1	SJS	10	1	0.47
2	TBL	16	0	0.80
2	SJS	7	0	0.43
3	TBL	16	2	1.96
3	SJS	10	0	0.28

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 81.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 4.1 - 1.8