Buffalo Sabres at Nashville Predators NHL Predictions

2026-01-20 • Bridgestone Arena

Nashville Predators 3 - 5 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NSH: 59.4%

BUF: 40.6%

Expected Goals

NSH: 3.36

BUF: 2.96

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 52%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NSH

Juuse Saros - 15-13-3 | 0.897 SV% | 2.93 GAA

BUF

Alex Lyon - 10-6-3 | 0.906 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Stat	NSH	BUF
Season SV%	0.897	0.906
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.93	2.82

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NSH	Juuse Saros	33	28	5	84.8%	2.92	2	-2.08
BUF	Alex Lyon	34	31	3	91.2%	3.41	1	0.41

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • NSH at home vs BUF: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-07	BUF 3 - 2 NSH	BUF	BUF
2026-01-20	NSH 3 - 5 BUF	BUF	NSH
2025-02-08	NSH 6 - 4 BUF	NSH	BUF
2025-01-31	BUF 4 - 3 NSH	BUF	BUF
2024-03-07	NSH 4 - 2 BUF	NSH	NSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NSH	12	0	0.53
1	BUF	15	1	1.28
2	NSH	24	1	1.54
2	BUF	12	0	0.74
3	NSH	27	0	1.34
3	BUF	12	1	0.90

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown