New Jersey Devils at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2026-01-20 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 1 - 2 New Jersey Devils

🚨 Upset Loss (67% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

EDM: 67.2%

NJD: 32.8%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.30

NJD: 2.78

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

EDM

Tristan Jarry - 12-3-1 | 0.906 SV% | 2.73 GAA

NJD

Jake Allen - 11-8-1 | 0.912 SV% | 2.52 GAA

Stat	EDM	NJD
Season SV%	0.906	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.73	2.52

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Tristan Jarry	17	15	2	88.2%	3.26	2	1.26
NJD	Jake Allen	23	22	1	95.7%	2.66	0	1.66

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • EDM at home vs NJD: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-20	EDM 1 - 2 NJD	NJD	EDM
2025-10-18	NJD 5 - 3 EDM	NJD	EDM
2025-03-13	NJD 3 - 2 EDM	NJD	NJD
2024-11-04	EDM 0 - 3 NJD	NJD	NJD
2023-12-21	NJD 3 - 6 EDM	EDM	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	7	0	0.30
1	NJD	10	1	0.93
2	EDM	14	0	0.93
2	NJD	17	0	1.46
3	EDM	22	0	1.44
3	NJD	7	1	0.86

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 67.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown