Detroit Red Wings at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2026-01-21 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 2 Detroit Red Wings (OT)

Win Probability

TOR: 46.2%

DET: 53.8%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.08

DET: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 68%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • TOR at home vs DET: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-21	TOR 1 - 2 DET	DET	DET
2025-12-28	DET 3 - 2 TOR	DET	DET
2025-10-13	TOR 2 - 3 DET	DET	DET
2025-10-11	DET 6 - 3 TOR	DET	DET
2025-04-17	TOR 4 - 3 DET	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	19	3	1.79
1	DET	19	0	1.58
2	TOR	20	1	1.97
2	DET	10	0	0.23
3	TOR	8	0	0.43
3	DET	23	0	0.48
4	TOR	1	0	0.13
4	DET	7	1	0.75

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 2 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0