Detroit Red Wings at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2026-01-21 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 2 Detroit Red Wings (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TOR: 49.2%

DET: 50.8%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.28

DET: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

DET

John Gibson - 13-8-1 | 0.893 SV% | 2.97 GAA

Stat	TOR	DET
Season SV%	0.914	0.893
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.74	2.97

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Joseph Woll	41	39	2	95.1%	3.04	1	1.04
DET	John Gibson	31	30	1	96.8%	4.33	4	3.33

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • TOR at home vs DET: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-21	TOR 1 - 2 DET	DET	DET
2025-12-28	DET 3 - 2 TOR	DET	DET
2025-10-13	TOR 2 - 3 DET	DET	TOR
2025-10-11	DET 6 - 3 TOR	DET	DET
2025-04-17	TOR 4 - 3 DET	TOR	TOR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	19	3	1.79
1	DET	19	0	1.58
2	TOR	20	1	1.97
2	DET	10	0	0.23
3	TOR	8	0	0.43
3	DET	23	0	0.48
4	TOR	1	0	0.13
4	DET	7	1	0.75

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 2 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0