Anaheim Ducks at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2026-01-21 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 1 - 2 Anaheim Ducks (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

COL: 61.6%

ANA: 38.4%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.05

ANA: 2.84

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 50%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

COL

Scott Wedgewood - 17-1-4 | 0.919 SV% | 2.13 GAA

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

Stat	COL	ANA
Season SV%	0.919	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.13	3.15

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Scott Wedgewood	19	16	3	84.2%	3.25	3	0.25
ANA	Lukas Dostal	43	42	1	97.7%	5.05	5	4.05

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • COL at home vs ANA: 6-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-03	ANA 1 - 5 COL	COL	ANA
2026-01-21	COL 1 - 2 ANA	ANA	COL
2025-11-11	COL 4 - 1 ANA	COL	COL
2025-04-13	ANA 2 - 4 COL	COL	COL
2024-12-20	ANA 2 - 4 COL	COL	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	16	0	0.96
1	ANA	9	1	0.56
2	COL	15	2	1.68
2	ANA	12	0	0.55
3	COL	23	3	1.86
3	ANA	5	0	0.18
4	COL	4	0	0.45
4	ANA	4	0	0.44
5	COL	2	0	0.10
5	ANA	3	2	1.50

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 1 - 2 Anaheim Ducks

Expected: 3.0 - 2.8