Philadelphia Flyers at Utah Hockey Club NHL Predictions

2026-01-21 • Delta Center

Utah Hockey Club 5 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

UTA: 58.9%

PHI: 41.1%

Expected Goals

UTA: 3.18

PHI: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 39%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

Stat	UTA	PHI
Season SV%	0.895	0.868
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.68	3.09

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	29	25	4	86.2%	4.20	4	0.20
PHI	Samuel Ersson	27	22	5	81.5%	2.89	1	-2.11

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • UTA at home vs PHI: 2-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-05	PHI 0 - 3 UTA	UTA	UTA
2026-01-21	UTA 5 - 4 PHI	UTA	UTA
2025-02-04	UTA 3 - 2 PHI	UTA	PHI
2024-12-08	PHI 2 - 4 UTA	UTA	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	UTA	10	0	0.36
1	PHI	23	3	2.44
2	UTA	24	1	1.45
2	PHI	16	1	1.20
3	UTA	15	0	0.78
3	PHI	8	0	0.57
4	UTA	2	0	0.29
4	PHI	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Utah Hockey Club 5 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 3.2 - 3.0