Pittsburgh Penguins at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions
2026-01-21 • Scotiabank Saddledome
Calgary Flames 1 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins
🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
CGY: 56.1%
PIT: 43.9%
Expected Goals
CGY: 3.22
PIT: 3.10
Total Goals
Median: 6.1
Over 5.5: 61%
Over 6.5: 45%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
CGY
Dustin Wolf - 16-21-3 | 0.895 SV% | 3.00 GAA
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 19-12-5 | 0.890 SV% | 2.79 GAA
| Stat | CGY | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.901 | 0.888 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.877 | 0.863 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.840 | 0.902 |
| GAA | 2.82 | 2.91 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CGY at home vs PIT: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-21 | CGY 1 - 4 PIT | PIT | CGY |
| 2026-01-10 | PIT 1 - 2 CGY | CGY | PIT |
| 2024-11-30 | PIT 6 - 2 CGY | PIT | PIT |
| 2024-10-22 | CGY 4 - 3 PIT | CGY | CGY |
| 2024-03-02 | CGY 4 - 3 PIT | CGY | CGY |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 07:49 | PIT | Goal |
| 2 | 12:32 | PIT | Goal |
| 2 | 19:57 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 00:50 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 09:19 | PIT | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 56.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
Calgary Flames 1 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins
Expected: 3.2 - 3.1