Washington Capitals at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2026-01-21 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 4 - 3 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VAN: 49.3%

WSH: 50.7%

Expected Goals

VAN: 2.95

WSH: 3.21

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VAN

Kevin Lankinen - 6-10-3 | 0.885 SV% | 3.41 GAA

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

Stat	VAN	WSH
Season SV%	0.885	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.41	2.39

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Kevin Lankinen	33	30	3	90.9%	4.11	4	1.11
WSH	Logan Thompson	25	21	4	84.0%	2.71	1	-1.29

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • VAN at home vs WSH: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-21	VAN 4 - 3 WSH	VAN	WSH
2025-10-19	WSH 3 - 4 VAN	VAN	WSH
2025-01-25	VAN 2 - 1 WSH	VAN	VAN
2025-01-08	WSH 2 - 1 VAN	WSH	WSH
2024-03-16	VAN 1 - 2 WSH	WSH	VAN

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	15	0	0.86
1	WSH	18	3	2.02
2	VAN	17	0	0.83
2	WSH	17	0	0.81
3	VAN	7	1	1.03
3	WSH	18	1	1.28

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown