New York Islanders at Seattle Kraken NHL Predictions

2026-01-21 • Climate Pledge Arena

Seattle Kraken 4 - 1 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SEA: 49.4%

NYI: 50.6%

Expected Goals

SEA: 3.20

NYI: 3.21

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 52%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SEA

Philipp Grubauer - 7-3-1 | 0.920 SV% | 2.32 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Stat	SEA	NYI
Season SV%	0.920	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.32	2.55

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SEA	Philipp Grubauer	25	24	1	96.0%	2.92	2	1.92
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	25	21	4	84.0%	4.30	3	0.30

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • SEA at home vs NYI: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-21	SEA 4 - 1 NYI	SEA	NYI
2025-11-23	NYI 1 - 0 SEA	NYI	NYI
2024-12-05	NYI 2 - 5 SEA	SEA	NYI
2024-11-16	SEA 3 - 2 NYI	SEA	NYI
2024-02-13	NYI 1 - 2 SEA	SEA	NYI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SEA	20	1	1.41
1	NYI	13	0	0.97
2	SEA	18	0	1.26
2	NYI	22	2	1.60
3	SEA	5	2	1.64
3	NYI	7	0	0.35

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown