Vegas Golden Knights at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions
2026-01-22 • TD Garden
Boston Bruins 4 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights
🚨 Upset Win (57% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BOS: 42.7%
VGK: 57.3%
Expected Goals
BOS: 3.08
VGK: 3.25
Total Goals
Median: 6.5
Over 5.5: 59%
Over 6.5: 45%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
BOS
Jeremy Swayman - 31-18-4 | 0.907 SV% | 2.71 GAA
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-10-6 | 0.893 SV% | 2.59 GAA
| Stat | BOS | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.903 | 0.895 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.904 | 0.879 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.838 | 0.830 |
| GAA | 2.84 | 2.50 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • BOS at home vs VGK: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-22 | BOS 4 - 3 VGK | BOS | VGK |
| 2025-10-16 | VGK 6 - 5 BOS | VGK | VGK |
| 2025-03-20 | VGK 5 - 1 BOS | VGK | VGK |
| 2025-02-08 | BOS 3 - 4 VGK | VGK | VGK |
| 2024-02-29 | BOS 5 - 4 VGK | BOS | BOS |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 09:12 | BOS | Goal |
| 1 | 09:42 | BOS | Goal |
| 1 | 10:06 | BOS | Goal |
| 2 | 07:25 | BOS | Goal |
| 3 | 00:31 | BOS | Goal |
| 3 | 03:01 | BOS | Goal |
| 3 | 17:25 | BOS | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 57.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
Boston Bruins 4 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights
Expected: 3.1 - 3.3
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