Vegas Golden Knights at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions

2026-01-22 • TD Garden

Boston Bruins 4 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BOS: 43.8%

VGK: 56.2%

Expected Goals

BOS: 3.16

VGK: 3.36

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BOS

Joonas Korpisalo - 6-8-0 | 0.882 SV% | 3.60 GAA

VGK

Akira Schmid - 11-4-4 | 0.895 SV% | 2.50 GAA

Stat	BOS	VGK
Season SV%	0.882	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.60	2.50

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BOS	Joonas Korpisalo	33	30	3	90.9%	5.13	7	2.13
VGK	Akira Schmid	29	25	4	86.2%	2.59	2	-1.41

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • BOS at home vs VGK: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-22	BOS 4 - 3 VGK	BOS	VGK
2025-10-16	VGK 6 - 5 BOS	VGK	VGK
2025-03-20	VGK 5 - 1 BOS	VGK	VGK
2025-02-08	BOS 3 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2024-02-29	BOS 5 - 4 VGK	BOS	BOS

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BOS	21	2	1.32
1	VGK	7	1	0.70
2	BOS	12	0	0.92
2	VGK	12	2	1.16
3	BOS	9	0	0.34
3	VGK	27	4	3.26

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown