Buffalo Sabres at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2026-01-22 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 4 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

MTL: 54.4%

BUF: 45.6%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.34

BUF: 2.94

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • MTL at home vs BUF: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-18	BUF 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-16	MTL 3 - 8 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-14	BUF 3 - 6 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-12	MTL 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-10	MTL 6 - 2 BUF	MTL	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	12	0	0.71
1	BUF	12	1	1.30
2	MTL	21	2	1.87
2	BUF	7	2	0.95
3	MTL	13	0	0.49
3	BUF	8	3	1.64

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 4 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9