Buffalo Sabres at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions
2026-01-22 • Centre Bell
Montreal Canadiens 2 - 4 Buffalo Sabres
🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
MTL: 62.7%
BUF: 37.3%
Expected Goals
MTL: 3.40
BUF: 1.78
Total Goals
Median: 5.0
Over 5.5: 43%
Over 6.5: 28%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 18-5-4 | 0.892 SV% | 2.96 GAA
BUF
Alex Lyon - 14-8-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.72 GAA
| Stat | MTL | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.889 | 0.906 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.903 | 0.934 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.943 | 0.902 |
| GAA | 3.01 | 2.82 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • MTL at home vs BUF: 3-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | BUF 2 - 4 MTL | MTL | BUF |
| 2026-01-22 | MTL 2 - 4 BUF | BUF | MTL |
| 2026-01-15 | BUF 5 - 3 MTL | BUF | BUF |
| 2025-10-20 | MTL 4 - 2 BUF | MTL | MTL |
| 2025-03-03 | MTL 4 - 3 BUF | MTL | MTL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14:58 | BUF | Goal |
| 1 | 00:44 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 11:20 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 03:56 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 02:25 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 19:16 | BUF | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 62.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 5.2
Score Breakdown
Montreal Canadiens 2 - 4 Buffalo Sabres
Expected: 3.4 - 1.8