Buffalo Sabres at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2026-01-22 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 2 - 4 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MTL: 57.4%

BUF: 42.6%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.45

BUF: 2.80

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Stat	MTL	BUF
Season SV%	0.863	0.903
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.52	2.46

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	17	13	4	76.5%	3.89	6	-0.11
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	34	32	2	94.1%	3.07	2	1.07

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 32% • MTL at home vs BUF: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-18	BUF 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-16	MTL 3 - 8 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-14	BUF 3 - 6 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-12	MTL 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-10	MTL 6 - 2 BUF	MTL	BUF

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	12	0	0.71
1	BUF	12	1	1.30
2	MTL	21	2	1.87
2	BUF	7	2	0.95
3	MTL	13	0	0.49
3	BUF	8	3	1.64

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown