Chicago Blackhawks at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2026-01-22 • Lenovo Center

Carolina Hurricanes 3 - 4 Chicago Blackhawks (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (73% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CAR: 72.9%

CHI: 27.1%

Expected Goals

CAR: 3.48

CHI: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 52%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

CHI

Spencer Knight - 11-11-6 | 0.909 SV% | 2.63 GAA

Stat	CAR	CHI
Season SV%	0.865	0.909
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.38	2.63

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Frederik Andersen	28	23	5	82.1%	4.61	5	-0.39
CHI	Spencer Knight	35	31	4	88.6%	5.36	5	1.36

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 91% • CAR at home vs CHI: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-10	CHI 2 - 5 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-04-09	CHI 2 - 7 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-01-22	CAR 3 - 4 CHI	CHI	CAR
2025-01-30	CAR 3 - 2 CHI	CAR	CAR
2025-01-20	CHI 3 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	19	1	1.25
1	CHI	6	1	0.69
2	CAR	20	1	1.45
2	CHI	9	1	0.41
3	CAR	13	1	1.01
3	CHI	14	0	1.03
4	CAR	1	1	0.22
4	CHI	3	1	0.42
5	CAR	6	1	1.42
5	CHI	6	2	2.05

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 72.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Carolina Hurricanes 3 - 4 Chicago Blackhawks

Expected: 3.5 - 3.0