Dallas Stars at Columbus Blue Jackets NHL Predictions

2026-01-22 • Nationwide Arena

Columbus Blue Jackets 1 - 0 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CBJ: 48.4%

DAL: 51.6%

Expected Goals

CBJ: 3.22

DAL: 3.49

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 53%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CBJ

Jet Greaves - 11-10-5 | 0.909 SV% | 2.62 GAA

DAL

Casey DeSmith - 9-2-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA

Stat	CBJ	DAL
Season SV%	0.909	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.62	2.44

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CBJ	Jet Greaves	28	28	0	100.0%	2.70	0	2.70
DAL	Casey DeSmith	22	21	1	95.5%	1.50	0	0.50

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • CBJ at home vs DAL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-22	CBJ 1 - 0 DAL	CBJ	DAL
2025-10-21	DAL 1 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	DAL
2025-02-25	CBJ 6 - 4 DAL	CBJ	DAL
2025-02-02	DAL 5 - 3 CBJ	DAL	DAL
2023-11-09	CBJ 2 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	CBJ	11	0.61
1	DAL	14	0.87
2	CBJ	15	0.76
2	DAL	13	0.99
3	CBJ	10	0.13
3	DAL	16	0.84

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 1.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown