Ottawa Senators at Nashville Predators NHL Predictions

2026-01-22 • Bridgestone Arena

Nashville Predators 5 - 3 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Win (57% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NSH: 43.4%

OTT: 56.6%

Expected Goals

NSH: 3.12

OTT: 3.18

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NSH

Juuse Saros - 15-13-3 | 0.897 SV% | 2.93 GAA

OTT

J. Reimer

Stat	NSH	OTT
Season SV%	0.897	—
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.93	—

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NSH	Juuse Saros	26	23	3	88.5%	3.30	3	0.30
OTT	J. Reimer	27	22	5	81.5%	3.90	5	-1.10

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • NSH at home vs OTT: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-22	NSH 5 - 3 OTT	NSH	OTT
2025-10-13	OTT 1 - 4 NSH	NSH	OTT
2025-02-03	NSH 2 - 5 OTT	OTT	NSH
2024-12-07	OTT 3 - 1 NSH	OTT	OTT
2024-02-27	NSH 4 - 1 OTT	NSH	NSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NSH	9	1	0.68
1	OTT	15	2	1.61
2	NSH	19	1	1.24
2	OTT	17	1	1.08
3	NSH	15	3	1.97
3	OTT	7	0	0.61

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown